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I'm writing this mainly to put it down on record, so I can check myself later on. We are, come what may, in for an interesting few years.
  • Trump has very little interest in doing the job himself. This is someone who couldn't even sit still for a two-hour debate prep session. He's likely to find the daily grind of briefings, meetings, and paperwork a dull drag. Day-to-day management of the government will probably be turned over to Pence, with Trump reserving himself for speeches, press conferences, public appearances, state dinners, signing ceremonies, and other self-promotional events. Edit 8 December 2016: At least when it comes to routine intelligence briefings, this seems to be what is developing. Trump receives the President's Daily Briefing (PDB), to which he is entitled as President-elect, about once a week. Pence receives it about six times a week. www.yahoo.com/news/trump-gets-…
  • With the effective power vacuum, the "swamp draining" Trump voters hoped for will simply not happen and the Republican establishment will move right in. This has already begun, with Pence being placed in charge of Trump's transition team, replacing Christie, who seems to be getting an increasingly raw deal in return for his support. There may be a few token outsiders added to the Cabinet, but there are a few in every administration. They don't remain outsiders for long.
  • As a result, Trump will push relatively few policy decisions, apart from a few high-profile, flashy issues. Most decisions made by his administration will be firmly in line with mainstream establishment Republican thinking.
  • One exception to this may be the fate of Obamacare. Early indications are that Trump's intentions for it may not quite be what the Republican establishment will want in its less fevered moments, and since he intends to attack it first thing he may well get what he wants. He's hinted that he'll fix Obamacare's problems (largely caused by deliberate non-cooperation from Republican governors) in part by a further expansion of Medicaid under the rubric of a "public option". This will effectively create a two-tiered healthcare system, where some have private coverage through their employers or professional associations, and others have public Federally funded coverage. It will in fact be an incremental step toward universal single-payer health care, but Trump will resolutely avoid calling it that.
  • He has already indicated his support for a $10/hr Federal minimum wage, something else he's likely to get right away and just about the only policy that really will directly help his supporters. That it's something the left has been pushing for will be steadfastly ignored.
  • Trump will probably settle his fraud lawsuits out of court so as to avoid distractions during the transition period and his first 100 days. He will claim this as a victory, despite a high likelihood they will be very costly to him. Edit: Called this one correctly as of 18 November 2016. www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/2…
  • Trump will be unable to deliver on any of his campaign promises when it comes to job creation, apart from directly funded Federal spending on infrastructure and defense. The former is actually a good thing: our national infrastructure is in dire need of an upgrade. But the trade wars he's threatening with China and his desire to renegotiate NAFTA will do far more harm than good. Growth and job creation will grind to a halt.
  • His tax scheme is the usual trickle-down nonsense, and it won't work now any better than it ever has. Given the vast sums he plans to spend, expect the Federal deficit to balloon even further.
  • Trump will, however, be able to claim victory on immigration almost immediately. That's because much of what he promised is already being done. Obama's administration has, contrary to right-wing rhetoric, been extremely active on immigration enforcement -- net immigration both legal and illegal from Mexico has in fact been zero for years now -- and a strong multi-agency vetting process is already in place for refugees from risky parts of the world. The Wall will not be built, as Mexico cannot be made to pay for it and Congress will certainly not appropriate the billions it would take to fund it, but he'll claim his vigorous enforcement (it's actually Obama's) has made it unnecessary.
  • Trump's foreign policy will be in large part driven by a strong desire to avoid antagonizing Russia at all costs. Far from destroying ISIS, he's more likely to withdraw from Syria and leave clean-up there to the Russians as Putin wants. This may be a good thing too: The attempt to remove Assad was among Obama's greatest blunders.
  • We will therefore probably see a strong recovery in global oil prices, and increased costs at the gas pump, on consumer goods, and on air travel. I have long suspected that OPEC's over-production, and the resulting depression in oil prices, has been diplomatically manipulated by the US partly for the purpose of keeping Russia economically stressed. If that's what has been happening, it will end.
  • Given Trump's denial of climate change and his intention to cut subsidies for clean energy, this is a good thing in a way. Subsidies have been necessary because the slump in oil prices have made clean energy sources economically unviable. If we see crude oil back up over $100/bbl, that will change, and subsidies will simply be unnecessary.
  • Trump's "get tough" policy on North Korea will amount to nothing but a war of words, since Russia would prefer stability that close to its territory. Vladivostok is less than 80 miles from the North Korean border.
  • While the Iran nuclear deal will perhaps be renegotiated for show, it will remain more or less the same in all essentials. Iran is a Russian ally.
  • Since Trump's promises of jobs and prosperity for his support base of uneducated white men will fail to materialize, as his policies cannot yield that result, Democrats may regain control of the Senate in 2018 and will at least narrow the Republican majority in the House. A sure Republican congressional majority will be short-lived under Trump, and he'd best take advantage of it while he can.
  • This also means Trump is very likely to be a one-term President. He won by securing the narrowest of margins in a number of key swing states. One analysis I've seen points out that Trump carried these swing states by a combined margin of slightly over 112,000 votes. This is less than a quarter of the margin by which Clinton is winning the overall popular vote as of this writing. It won't take much for the swing states to go the other way.
I may edit this over the next few weeks to refine a few ideas as we get a better idea of how the Trump administration is shaping up. Either way, I'll come back to this in a few years to see how right or wrong I was.

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Lytrigian
Chris
Artist | Hobbyist | Literature
United States
I'm just here to show off my writing and to stare at the pretty pictures.

I don't usually thank people for faves, even though they're much appreciated, just because that's a conversation that never really goes anywhere. But I almost always reply to comments!

Current Residence: Santa Cruz County, California
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Activity


I'm writing this mainly to put it down on record, so I can check myself later on. We are, come what may, in for an interesting few years.
  • Trump has very little interest in doing the job himself. This is someone who couldn't even sit still for a two-hour debate prep session. He's likely to find the daily grind of briefings, meetings, and paperwork a dull drag. Day-to-day management of the government will probably be turned over to Pence, with Trump reserving himself for speeches, press conferences, public appearances, state dinners, signing ceremonies, and other self-promotional events. Edit 8 December 2016: At least when it comes to routine intelligence briefings, this seems to be what is developing. Trump receives the President's Daily Briefing (PDB), to which he is entitled as President-elect, about once a week. Pence receives it about six times a week. www.yahoo.com/news/trump-gets-…
  • With the effective power vacuum, the "swamp draining" Trump voters hoped for will simply not happen and the Republican establishment will move right in. This has already begun, with Pence being placed in charge of Trump's transition team, replacing Christie, who seems to be getting an increasingly raw deal in return for his support. There may be a few token outsiders added to the Cabinet, but there are a few in every administration. They don't remain outsiders for long.
  • As a result, Trump will push relatively few policy decisions, apart from a few high-profile, flashy issues. Most decisions made by his administration will be firmly in line with mainstream establishment Republican thinking.
  • One exception to this may be the fate of Obamacare. Early indications are that Trump's intentions for it may not quite be what the Republican establishment will want in its less fevered moments, and since he intends to attack it first thing he may well get what he wants. He's hinted that he'll fix Obamacare's problems (largely caused by deliberate non-cooperation from Republican governors) in part by a further expansion of Medicaid under the rubric of a "public option". This will effectively create a two-tiered healthcare system, where some have private coverage through their employers or professional associations, and others have public Federally funded coverage. It will in fact be an incremental step toward universal single-payer health care, but Trump will resolutely avoid calling it that.
  • He has already indicated his support for a $10/hr Federal minimum wage, something else he's likely to get right away and just about the only policy that really will directly help his supporters. That it's something the left has been pushing for will be steadfastly ignored.
  • Trump will probably settle his fraud lawsuits out of court so as to avoid distractions during the transition period and his first 100 days. He will claim this as a victory, despite a high likelihood they will be very costly to him. Edit: Called this one correctly as of 18 November 2016. www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/2…
  • Trump will be unable to deliver on any of his campaign promises when it comes to job creation, apart from directly funded Federal spending on infrastructure and defense. The former is actually a good thing: our national infrastructure is in dire need of an upgrade. But the trade wars he's threatening with China and his desire to renegotiate NAFTA will do far more harm than good. Growth and job creation will grind to a halt.
  • His tax scheme is the usual trickle-down nonsense, and it won't work now any better than it ever has. Given the vast sums he plans to spend, expect the Federal deficit to balloon even further.
  • Trump will, however, be able to claim victory on immigration almost immediately. That's because much of what he promised is already being done. Obama's administration has, contrary to right-wing rhetoric, been extremely active on immigration enforcement -- net immigration both legal and illegal from Mexico has in fact been zero for years now -- and a strong multi-agency vetting process is already in place for refugees from risky parts of the world. The Wall will not be built, as Mexico cannot be made to pay for it and Congress will certainly not appropriate the billions it would take to fund it, but he'll claim his vigorous enforcement (it's actually Obama's) has made it unnecessary.
  • Trump's foreign policy will be in large part driven by a strong desire to avoid antagonizing Russia at all costs. Far from destroying ISIS, he's more likely to withdraw from Syria and leave clean-up there to the Russians as Putin wants. This may be a good thing too: The attempt to remove Assad was among Obama's greatest blunders.
  • We will therefore probably see a strong recovery in global oil prices, and increased costs at the gas pump, on consumer goods, and on air travel. I have long suspected that OPEC's over-production, and the resulting depression in oil prices, has been diplomatically manipulated by the US partly for the purpose of keeping Russia economically stressed. If that's what has been happening, it will end.
  • Given Trump's denial of climate change and his intention to cut subsidies for clean energy, this is a good thing in a way. Subsidies have been necessary because the slump in oil prices have made clean energy sources economically unviable. If we see crude oil back up over $100/bbl, that will change, and subsidies will simply be unnecessary.
  • Trump's "get tough" policy on North Korea will amount to nothing but a war of words, since Russia would prefer stability that close to its territory. Vladivostok is less than 80 miles from the North Korean border.
  • While the Iran nuclear deal will perhaps be renegotiated for show, it will remain more or less the same in all essentials. Iran is a Russian ally.
  • Since Trump's promises of jobs and prosperity for his support base of uneducated white men will fail to materialize, as his policies cannot yield that result, Democrats may regain control of the Senate in 2018 and will at least narrow the Republican majority in the House. A sure Republican congressional majority will be short-lived under Trump, and he'd best take advantage of it while he can.
  • This also means Trump is very likely to be a one-term President. He won by securing the narrowest of margins in a number of key swing states. One analysis I've seen points out that Trump carried these swing states by a combined margin of slightly over 112,000 votes. This is less than a quarter of the margin by which Clinton is winning the overall popular vote as of this writing. It won't take much for the swing states to go the other way.
I may edit this over the next few weeks to refine a few ideas as we get a better idea of how the Trump administration is shaping up. Either way, I'll come back to this in a few years to see how right or wrong I was.
I did my best, it wasn't much
I couldn't feel, so I tried to touch
I've told the truth, I didn't come to fool you
And even though
It all went wrong
I'll stand before the Lord of Song
With nothing on my tongue but Hallelujah

If you are the dealer, let me out of the game,
If you are the healer, I'm broken and lame,
If Thine is the glory, mine must be the shame.
You want it darker.

Hineni, hineni.
I'm ready, my Lord.
-- Leonard Cohen, 1932-2016

www.rollingstone.com/music/new…
Thanks to Pokemon GO! it is now possible to be a professional Pokemon trainer. For real.

Your customers will be people who want to compete at a high level but don't have time to walk around all day catching Pokemon. Apparently you can get $20/hr for this.

gothamist.com/2016/07/12/pokem…
Why is it, when you clearly tell someone you're not going to read any further replies from them on a thread, they keep posting?

I rarely block anyone and I believe my block list is currently empty, but I'm quite capable of simply deleting the notifications without concern. What bothers me is that I'm apparently not being taken at my word. How insulting!

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:iconchampionx91:
Championx91 Featured By Owner Nov 25, 2016
Llama by Championx91
Why don't you check out the rest of my gallery? - championx91.deviantart.com/gal…
Here is some examples:
Snow by Championx91TFP - Megatron by Championx91PrimexElia1 - Lines by Championx91Val10 Love2 by Championx91:Eating Blue:. by Championx91
Oh by the way? Commission is open! Check it out - championx91.deviantart.com/jou…
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:iconleothefox:
leothefox Featured By Owner Nov 15, 2016   General Artist
la in love Buddy! catching love Thank you for faving

Final Specimen by leothefox I miss you! 2016 NaNoEmo - #1 Imagination 
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:iconsimbalm:
simbalm Featured By Owner Oct 17, 2016  Student General Artist
Thanks so much for :+devwatch:ing! Stay awesome =p!
Everyone Loves Me Stamp by Khrinx
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:iconspite-sire:
Spite-Sire Featured By Owner Oct 12, 2016
Hey, thanks for the badge. Your writings are really good by the way. Mk, that is all. Ciao. x] :peace:
Reply
:iconleothefox:
leothefox Featured By Owner Sep 25, 2016   General Artist
Swingin' On a Star _revamp_ Thank you for faving

Mature Content

September 19 2016 by leothefox
 
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:iconleothefox:
leothefox Featured By Owner Sep 17, 2016   General Artist
Adorable Girl Anime Emoji (Kawaii Wink) [V6] Thank you for faving

Mature Content

So Fine a Plan by leothefox
 
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:iconxmoonlitxdreamx:
xmoonlitxdreamx Featured By Owner Sep 15, 2016  Hobbyist Traditional Artist
Thanks for the watch!!
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:iconleothefox:
leothefox Featured By Owner Sep 10, 2016   General Artist
[i]: free blushing bun icon! Thank you so much for faving

The Rocket King in Green by leothefox  
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:iconleothefox:
leothefox Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2016   General Artist
Happy Happy..Onion Thank you for faving

Red City Lights by leothefox  
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:iconneurotype:
neurotype Featured By Owner Aug 17, 2016  Hobbyist General Artist
I need your thoughts on this.

www.cracked.com/blog/snow-whit…
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:iconlytrigian:
Lytrigian Featured By Owner Aug 17, 2016  Hobbyist Writer
I think it needs to be taken about as seriously as anything else in Cracked. Although I have to say, it's a bit odd to use the Jackson movies as a reference since they arguably do not occupy the same universe as the books.

They are far from the first to note a certain correspondence between Tolkien's dwarves and the Snow White story... flyingmoose.org/tolksarc/theor…
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:iconneurotype:
neurotype Featured By Owner Aug 19, 2016  Hobbyist General Artist
Oooooh. Haha, I figured if there was anything legit about this, you'd know P:
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:iconleothefox:
leothefox Featured By Owner Jul 20, 2016   General Artist
:La: in Love with :Dummy: Thank you for faving

Mature Content

The Door is a Jar by leothefox
 
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:iconpaytonsnewheart:
paytonsnewheart Featured By Owner Jul 10, 2016  Hobbyist Filmographer
Thanks for the llama!
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:iconmangekkojones:
MangekkoJones Featured By Owner Jul 4, 2016  Student General Artist
Thank you for the Llama!
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